KalshiActive

2026: Trump's bad year?

Event Ticker
KXTRUMPBEARCASECOMBO-27DEC
Category
Politics
24h Volume
1.12K
Expiration
Jan 7, 2028, 3:00 PM

Probability History

Source: Kalshi candlesticks via OrangeRock proxy

0%25%50%75%100%Dec 17Mar 15
  • Will the bear case for Trump occur in 2026?

    Latest: 0.00%

Market Overview

Markets are sorted by active status and volume. History is derived from Kalshi candlestick data per market ticker, aligned to a 60-minute interval.

Markets

Will the bear case for Trump occur in 2026?

Active

Yes

18.50%

No

81.50%

Market Ticker
KXTRUMPBEARCASECOMBO-27DEC-26
Last Price
20¢ (20.00%)
Yes Bid / Ask
17¢ / 20¢
No Bid / Ask
80¢ / 83¢
Open Interest
18.5K
Volume (24h)
1.12K

Rules

If ALL of the following occur: Trump's VoteHub approval rating drops below 35% in 2026 AND Democrats win control of the House of Representatives after the midterms AND the U.S. enters a recession between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive) AND the U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) is at least 5% in any month in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.