When will the next U.S. recession start?
ActiveYes
1.00%
No
99.00%
- Market Ticker
- KXNBERRECESSQ-Q2-2025
- Last Price
- 2¢ (2.00%)
- Yes Bid / Ask
- 0¢ / 2¢
- No Bid / Ask
- 98¢ / 100¢
- Open Interest
- 9.94K
- Volume (24h)
- 0
KalshiActive
When will the next US recession start?
- Event Ticker
- KXNBERRECESSQ
- Category
- Economics
- 24h Volume
- 674
- Expiration
- Dec 31, 2026, 3:00 PM
Market Overview
Markets are sorted by active status and volume. History is derived from Kalshi candlestick data per market ticker, aligned to a 60-minute interval.
Markets
When will the next U.S. recession start?
ActiveYes
0.50%
No
99.50%
- Market Ticker
- KXNBERRECESSQ-Q1-2025
- Last Price
- 1¢ (1.00%)
- Yes Bid / Ask
- 0¢ / 1¢
- No Bid / Ask
- 99¢ / 100¢
- Open Interest
- 33.77K
- Volume (24h)
- 0
When will the next U.S. recession start?
ActiveYes
4.50%
No
95.50%
- Market Ticker
- KXNBERRECESSQ-Q4-2025
- Last Price
- 4¢ (4.00%)
- Yes Bid / Ask
- 4¢ / 5¢
- No Bid / Ask
- 95¢ / 96¢
- Open Interest
- 13.58K
- Volume (24h)
- 85
When will the next U.S. recession start?
ActiveYes
3.50%
No
96.50%
- Market Ticker
- KXNBERRECESSQ-Q3-2025
- Last Price
- 4¢ (4.00%)
- Yes Bid / Ask
- 3¢ / 4¢
- No Bid / Ask
- 96¢ / 97¢
- Open Interest
- 6.57K
- Volume (24h)
- 0
When will the next U.S. recession start?
ActiveYes
9.50%
No
90.50%
- Market Ticker
- KXNBERRECESSQ-Q1-2026
- Last Price
- 9¢ (9.00%)
- Yes Bid / Ask
- 9¢ / 10¢
- No Bid / Ask
- 90¢ / 91¢
- Open Interest
- 17.87K
- Volume (24h)
- 674
When will the next U.S. recession start?
ActiveYes
1.00%
No
99.00%
- Market Ticker
- KXNBERRECESSQ-Q4-2024
- Last Price
- 2¢ (2.00%)
- Yes Bid / Ask
- 0¢ / 2¢
- No Bid / Ask
- 98¢ / 100¢
- Open Interest
- 13.3K
- Volume (24h)
- 0
Rules
If the NBER declares the peak of American business activity predating a recession to be in Q1 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.