KalshiActive

Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks?

Event Ticker
KXTARIFFCHECKS-26
Category
Politics
24h Volume
388
Expiration
Jul 8, 2026, 2:00 PM

Probability History

Source: Kalshi candlesticks via OrangeRock proxy

0%25%50%75%100%Dec 11Mar 16
  • Will it be reported that at least one million Americans have received checks of at least $1000 directly attributable to tariff revenue?

    Latest: 0.00%

Market Overview

Markets are sorted by active status and volume. History is derived from Kalshi candlestick data per market ticker, aligned to a 60-minute interval.

Markets

Will it be reported that at least one million Americans have received checks of at least $1000 directly attributable to tariff revenue?

Active

Yes

39.00%

No

61.00%

Market Ticker
KXTARIFFCHECKS-26-27
Last Price
39¢ (39.00%)
Yes Bid / Ask
38¢ / 40¢
No Bid / Ask
60¢ / 62¢
Open Interest
82.37K
Volume (24h)
5K

Will it be reported that at least one million Americans have received checks of at least $1000 directly attributable to tariff revenue?

Active

Yes

1.00%

No

99.00%

Market Ticker
KXTARIFFCHECKS-26-FEB
Last Price
1¢ (1.00%)
Yes Bid / Ask
0¢ / 2¢
No Bid / Ask
98¢ / 100¢
Open Interest
55.24K
Volume (24h)
6.91K

Will it be reported that at least one million Americans have received checks of at least $1000 directly attributable to tariff revenue?

Active

Yes

27.50%

No

72.50%

Market Ticker
KXTARIFFCHECKS-26-AUG
Last Price
27¢ (27.00%)
Yes Bid / Ask
27¢ / 28¢
No Bid / Ask
72¢ / 73¢
Open Interest
34.23K
Volume (24h)
1.42K

Will it be reported that at least one million Americans have received checks of at least $1000 directly attributable to tariff revenue?

Active

Yes

8.00%

No

92.00%

Market Ticker
KXTARIFFCHECKS-26-APR
Last Price
8¢ (8.00%)
Yes Bid / Ask
7¢ / 9¢
No Bid / Ask
91¢ / 93¢
Open Interest
22.32K
Volume (24h)
4.59K

Will it be reported that at least one million Americans have received checks of at least $1000 directly attributable to tariff revenue?

Active

Yes

3.00%

No

97.00%

Market Ticker
KXTARIFFCHECKS-26-MAR
Last Price
4¢ (4.00%)
Yes Bid / Ask
2¢ / 4¢
No Bid / Ask
96¢ / 98¢
Open Interest
29.44K
Volume (24h)
6.75K

Will it be reported that at least one million Americans have received checks of at least $1000 directly attributable to tariff revenue?

Active

Yes

15.50%

No

84.50%

Market Ticker
KXTARIFFCHECKS-26-JUL
Last Price
14¢ (14.00%)
Yes Bid / Ask
14¢ / 17¢
No Bid / Ask
83¢ / 86¢
Open Interest
17.98K
Volume (24h)
388

Will it be reported that at least one million Americans have received checks of at least $1000 directly attributable to tariff revenue?

Active

Yes

14.50%

No

85.50%

Market Ticker
KXTARIFFCHECKS-26-JUN
Last Price
13¢ (13.00%)
Yes Bid / Ask
13¢ / 16¢
No Bid / Ask
84¢ / 87¢
Open Interest
15.59K
Volume (24h)
4.78K

Will it be reported that at least one million Americans have received checks of at least $1000 directly attributable to tariff revenue?

Active

Yes

10.00%

No

90.00%

Market Ticker
KXTARIFFCHECKS-26-MAY
Last Price
9¢ (9.00%)
Yes Bid / Ask
9¢ / 11¢
No Bid / Ask
89¢ / 91¢
Open Interest
15.29K
Volume (24h)
3.05K

Will it be reported that at least one million Americans have received payments of at least $1000 directly attributable to tariff revenue?

Finalized

Yes

50.00%

No

50.00%

Market Ticker
KXTARIFFCHECKS-26
Last Price
1¢ (1.00%)
Yes Bid / Ask
0¢ / 100¢
No Bid / Ask
0¢ / 100¢
Open Interest
382.94K
Volume (24h)
0

Rules

If at least one million Americans have received payments of at least $1,000 directly attributable to tariff revenue is reported by any of the Source Agencies before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.