KalshiActive

Will the US issue a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan?

Event Ticker
KXTAIWANLVL4
Category
Politics
24h Volume
0
Expiration
Jan 8, 2030, 3:00 PM

Probability History

Source: Kalshi candlesticks via OrangeRock proxy

0%25%50%75%100%Jan 7Mar 15
  • Will the U.S. State Department issue a Level 4 warning for Taiwan before Jan 1, 2027?

    Latest: 0.00%

Market Overview

Markets are sorted by active status and volume. History is derived from Kalshi candlestick data per market ticker, aligned to a 60-minute interval.

Markets

Will the U.S. State Department issue a Level 4 warning for Taiwan before Jan 1, 2027?

Active

Yes

23.50%

No

76.50%

Market Ticker
KXTAIWANLVL4-27JAN01
Last Price
23¢ (23.00%)
Yes Bid / Ask
23¢ / 24¢
No Bid / Ask
76¢ / 77¢
Open Interest
47.73K
Volume (24h)
0

Will the U.S. State Department issue a Level 4 warning for Taiwan before Jul 1, 2026?

Active

Yes

7.00%

No

93.00%

Market Ticker
KXTAIWANLVL4-26JUL01
Last Price
6¢ (6.00%)
Yes Bid / Ask
6¢ / 8¢
No Bid / Ask
92¢ / 94¢
Open Interest
7.33K
Volume (24h)
262

Will the U.S. State Department issue a Level 4 warning for Taiwan before Jan 1, 2029?

Active

Yes

34.50%

No

65.50%

Market Ticker
KXTAIWANLVL4-29JAN01
Last Price
34¢ (34.00%)
Yes Bid / Ask
34¢ / 35¢
No Bid / Ask
65¢ / 66¢
Open Interest
2.01K
Volume (24h)
5

Will the U.S. State Department issue a Level 4 warning for Taiwan before Jan 1, 2028?

Active

Yes

32.50%

No

67.50%

Market Ticker
KXTAIWANLVL4-28JAN01
Last Price
33¢ (33.00%)
Yes Bid / Ask
32¢ / 33¢
No Bid / Ask
67¢ / 68¢
Open Interest
3.98K
Volume (24h)
5

Will the U.S. State Department issue a Level 4 warning for Taiwan before Jan 1, 2030?

Active

Yes

36.50%

No

63.50%

Market Ticker
KXTAIWANLVL4-30JAN01
Last Price
39¢ (39.00%)
Yes Bid / Ask
34¢ / 39¢
No Bid / Ask
61¢ / 66¢
Open Interest
3.01K
Volume (24h)
0

Rules

If the U.S. State Department issues, updates, or reaffirms a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.