4th or lower
ActiveYes
97.80%
No
2.20%
- Market ID
- 1057928
- Volume
- $141,858
- Liquidity
- $13,192
- End Date
- Feb 10, 2026, 12:00 AM
PolymarketActive
2026 January 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
- Ticker
- 2026-january-1st-2nd-3rd-hottest-on-record
- Liquidity
- $54,662
- 24h Volume
- $2,459
- End Date
- Feb 10, 2026, 12:00 AM
Market Overview
Markets are sorted by active status and volume. Probability history is fetched from Polymarket CLOB for the top market token IDs, similar to Bitcoin.com Markets.
Markets
3rd hottest
ActiveYes
1.15%
No
98.85%
- Market ID
- 1057927
- Volume
- $71,799
- Liquidity
- $11,475
- End Date
- Feb 10, 2026, 12:00 AM
1st hottest
ActiveYes
0.60%
No
99.40%
- Market ID
- 1057925
- Volume
- $52,312
- Liquidity
- $19,214
- End Date
- Feb 10, 2026, 12:00 AM
2nd hottest
ActiveYes
0.70%
No
99.30%
- Market ID
- 1057926
- Volume
- $43,342
- Liquidity
- $10,782
- End Date
- Feb 10, 2026, 12:00 AM
Event Description
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for January 2026 versus the data points available for all other Januaries on record. Note: If January 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jan" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for January 2026 is provided by NASA by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Event Stats
- Event ID
- 131180
- Start Date
- Dec 29, 2025, 10:05 PM
- End Date
- Feb 10, 2026, 12:00 AM
- Total Markets
- 4
- Total Volume
- 309.31K
- Liquidity
- 54.66K
- Last Updated
- Feb 11, 2026, 7:16 PM