30-year mortgage rate below 6% by January 31?

Market Overview

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Event Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States falls below 6.00% at any point between market creation and January 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If, for any reason, there is no data point for this market's resolution date on either of the sources listed below, information for the nearest previously available date will be used. The primary resolution source for this market is Freddie Mac, specifically https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms. The data that will be looked at is the "30Y FRM" as indicated on the graph titled "Primary Mortgage Market Survey®". If the resolution source is unavailable, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US will be looked at instead. If both sources are unavailable or haven't released the specified data up until the end of the 14th day following resolution time, this market will resolve based on the data published up until that point.

Event Stats

Event ID

149616

Start Date

Jan 7, 2026, 10:13 PM

End Date

Jan 31, 2026, 12:00 AM

Total Markets

1

Total Volume

1.58K

Liquidity

393.96

Last Updated

Feb 5, 2026, 8:31 PM