PolymarketActive

How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?

Ticker
how-many-large-volcano-eruption-vei-4-in-2026-657
Liquidity
$14,640
24h Volume
$226.50
End Date
Mar 31, 2027, 12:00 AM

Market Overview

Markets are sorted by active status and volume. Probability history is fetched from Polymarket CLOB for the top market token IDs, similar to Bitcoin.com Markets.

Markets

1

Active

Yes

35.50%

No

64.50%

Market ID
1075291
Volume
$131,229
Liquidity
$2,639
End Date
Dec 31, 2026, 12:00 AM

0

Active

Yes

46.50%

No

53.50%

Market ID
1075290
Volume
$90,401
Liquidity
$3,645
End Date
Dec 31, 2026, 12:00 AM

2

Active

Yes

9.15%

No

90.85%

Market ID
1075292
Volume
$9,403
Liquidity
$1,650
End Date
Dec 31, 2026, 12:00 AM

4

Active

Yes

3.85%

No

96.15%

Market ID
1075294
Volume
$6,550
Liquidity
$3,312
End Date
Dec 31, 2026, 12:00 AM

5+

Active

Yes

1.35%

No

98.65%

Market ID
1075295
Volume
$4,235
Liquidity
$2,242
End Date
Dec 31, 2026, 12:00 AM

3

Active

Yes

4.50%

No

95.50%

Market ID
1075293
Volume
$3,028
Liquidity
$1,134
End Date
Dec 31, 2026, 12:00 AM

Event Description

This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus. Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.

Event Stats

Event ID
135338
Start Date
Jan 2, 2026, 6:56 PM
End Date
Mar 31, 2027, 12:00 AM
Total Markets
6
Total Volume
244.85K
Liquidity
14.64K
Last Updated
Mar 16, 2026, 2:31 AM