PolymarketActive

How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?

Ticker
how-many-spacex-starship-launches-reach-space-in-2026
Liquidity
$3,772
24h Volume
$11,142
End Date
Dec 31, 2026, 12:00 AM

Market Overview

Markets are sorted by active status and volume. Probability history is fetched from Polymarket CLOB for the top market token IDs, similar to Bitcoin.com Markets.

Markets

7-8

Active

Yes

27.00%

No

73.00%

Market ID
916717
Volume
$16,293
Liquidity
$581.75
End Date
Dec 31, 2026, 12:00 AM

<5

Active

Yes

6.50%

No

93.50%

Market ID
916715
Volume
$1,459
Liquidity
$570.32
End Date
Dec 31, 2026, 12:00 AM

5-6

Active

Yes

35.50%

No

64.50%

Market ID
916716
Volume
$1,339
Liquidity
$322.17
End Date
Dec 31, 2026, 12:00 AM

11-12

Active

Yes

10.15%

No

89.85%

Market ID
916719
Volume
$1,211
Liquidity
$394.16
End Date
Dec 31, 2026, 12:00 AM

15-16

Active

Yes

5.85%

No

94.15%

Market ID
916721
Volume
$1,185
Liquidity
$403.51
End Date
Dec 31, 2026, 12:00 AM

9-10

Active

Yes

14.50%

No

85.50%

Market ID
916718
Volume
$1,181
Liquidity
$553.25
End Date
Dec 31, 2026, 12:00 AM

13-14

Active

Yes

6.40%

No

93.60%

Market ID
916720
Volume
$1,166
Liquidity
$385.10
End Date
Dec 31, 2026, 12:00 AM

>16

Active

Yes

4.00%

No

96.00%

Market ID
916722
Volume
$1,028
Liquidity
$561.81
End Date
Dec 31, 2026, 12:00 AM

Event Description

This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event Stats

Event ID
102763
Start Date
Dec 12, 2025, 12:45 AM
End Date
Dec 31, 2026, 12:00 AM
Total Markets
8
Total Volume
24.86K
Liquidity
3.77K
Last Updated
Mar 16, 2026, 1:01 AM