Taliban blackmail of D.C. shooter confirmed by March 31?

Market Overview

Markets are sorted by active status and volume. Probability history is fetched from Polymarket CLOB for the top market token IDs, similar to Bitcoin.com Markets.

Event Description

The Afghan man Rahmanullah Lakanwal, who allegedly shot two National Guard members in Washington D.C. on November 26, is rumored to have been blackmailed into the shooting by the Taliban. This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is confirmed, by either relevant U.S. law enforcement agencies or a consensus of credible reporting, that Lakanwal was blackmailed by the Taliban to commit this shooting by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, blackmail refers to members of the Taliban coercing Lakanwal to commit the shooting or a similar act by threatening Lakanwal or his family/friends. General encouragement or instruction from the Taliban, without coercion, will not qualify. This market will resolve once official statements from relevant U.S. law enforcement agencies, or a consensus of credible reporting, have clearly confirmed whether Lakanwal was blackmailed by the Taliban. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from relevant U.S. law enforcement agencies; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Event Stats

Event ID

96647

Start Date

Dec 5, 2025, 8:09 PM

End Date

Mar 31, 2026, 12:00 AM

Total Markets

1

Total Volume

1.78K

Liquidity

847.88

Last Updated

Mar 16, 2026, 1:16 AM