U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31?

Market Overview

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Event Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (military, DEA, CIA, or any other agency) directly participates on the ground in an anti-cartel operation on Mexican soil by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No” U.S. personnel must directly participate to qualify. U.S. personnel involved in intelligence, surveillance, logistical, support, or advisory roles will not count. Only direct U.S. participation which is either confirmed by the U.S. Government or an overwhelming consensus of reporting will count. For example, previous operations such as the 2014 capture of Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán, in which U.S. forces were rumored to have been embedded with Mexican Marines, would not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government, however an overwhelming consensus of reporting may also be used.

Event Stats

Event ID

153613

Start Date

Jan 9, 2026, 7:24 PM

End Date

Jan 31, 2026, 12:00 AM

Total Markets

1

Total Volume

54.42K

Liquidity

4.86K

Last Updated

Feb 4, 2026, 12:46 AM