Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by March 31?

Market Overview

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Event Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not. Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify. The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Event Stats

Event ID

73055

Start Date

Nov 5, 2025, 5:57 PM

End Date

Mar 31, 2026, 12:00 AM

Total Markets

1

Total Volume

160.24K

Liquidity

12.72K

Last Updated

Mar 16, 2026, 1:16 AM