US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?

Market Overview

Markets are sorted by active status and volume. Probability history is fetched from Polymarket CLOB for the top market token IDs, similar to Bitcoin.com Markets.

Event Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the "leader of Iran" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Roles that could qualify for "leader of Iran" status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "prime minister," or other similar roles that give him primary executive authority in the territory of Iran. A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Event Stats

Event ID

145523

Start Date

Jan 5, 2026, 8:34 PM

End Date

Dec 31, 2026, 12:00 AM

Total Markets

1

Total Volume

96.86K

Liquidity

6.8K

Last Updated

Mar 16, 2026, 1:16 AM