What will the U.S./Israel target in Iran by January 31?

Market Overview

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Event Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel or the United States carry out a kinetic military strike against any Iranian facility used for the development, enrichment, storage, or processing of nuclear material or technology, including reactors, enrichment facilities, uranium mines, and research centers located on Iranian soil, between market creation and January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by US Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. Israeli missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets will not be considered for this market. The resolution source for this market is official statements from the US, Israeli, and Iranian governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.

Event Stats

Event ID

154255

Start Date

Jan 11, 2026, 5:31 AM

End Date

Jan 16, 2026, 12:00 AM

Total Markets

3

Total Volume

129.41K

Liquidity

17.5K

Last Updated

Feb 1, 2026, 8:01 AM