PolymarketActive

Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30?

Ticker
which-companies-will-have-a-1-ai-model-by-june-30
Liquidity
$31,950
24h Volume
$1,095
End Date
Jun 30, 2026, 12:00 AM

Market Overview

Markets are sorted by active status and volume. Probability history is fetched from Polymarket CLOB for the top market token IDs, similar to Bitcoin.com Markets.

Markets

OpenAI

Active

Yes

27.50%

No

72.50%

Market ID
996324
Volume
$229,555
Liquidity
$4,260
End Date
Jun 30, 2026, 12:00 AM

xAI

Active

Yes

41.50%

No

58.50%

Market ID
996326
Volume
$154,204
Liquidity
$6,460
End Date
Jun 30, 2026, 12:00 AM

Anthropic

Active

Yes

15.00%

No

85.00%

Market ID
996327
Volume
$136,969
Liquidity
$6,285
End Date
Jun 30, 2026, 12:00 AM

DeepSeek

Active

Yes

11.80%

No

88.20%

Market ID
996325
Volume
$2,112
Liquidity
$4,855
End Date
Jun 30, 2026, 12:00 AM

Nvidia

Active

Yes

8.50%

No

91.50%

Market ID
996331
Volume
$1,760
Liquidity
$1,221
End Date
Jun 30, 2026, 12:00 AM

Z.ai

Active

Yes

13.00%

No

87.00%

Market ID
996333
Volume
$1,577
Liquidity
$1,115
End Date
Jun 30, 2026, 12:00 AM

Meta

Active

Yes

11.50%

No

88.50%

Market ID
996328
Volume
$1,238
Liquidity
$1,339
End Date
Jun 30, 2026, 12:00 AM

Meituan

Active

Yes

4.50%

No

95.50%

Market ID
996334
Volume
$1,043
Liquidity
$544.62
End Date
Jun 30, 2026, 12:00 AM

Baidu

Active

Yes

21.65%

No

78.35%

Market ID
996332
Volume
$444.65
Liquidity
$3,274
End Date
Jun 30, 2026, 12:00 AM

Alibaba

Active

Yes

31.00%

No

69.00%

Market ID
996330
Volume
$222.94
Liquidity
$1,452
End Date
Jun 30, 2026, 12:00 AM

Mistral

Active

Yes

20.50%

No

79.50%

Market ID
996329
Volume
$100.79
Liquidity
$1,146
End Date
Jun 30, 2026, 12:00 AM

Event Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.

Event Stats

Event ID
117916
Start Date
Dec 22, 2025, 10:37 PM
End Date
Jun 30, 2026, 12:00 AM
Total Markets
11
Total Volume
529.23K
Liquidity
31.95K
Last Updated
Mar 16, 2026, 1:01 AM