Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?

Market Overview

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Event Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Event Stats

Event ID

79953

Start Date

Nov 13, 2025, 11:20 PM

End Date

Dec 31, 2026, 12:00 AM

Total Markets

1

Total Volume

1.2K

Liquidity

1.45K

Last Updated

Mar 15, 2026, 11:46 PM