Will any country leave NATO by...?

Market Overview

Markets are sorted by active status and volume. Probability history is fetched from Polymarket CLOB for the top market token IDs, similar to Bitcoin.com Markets.

Event Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any member state formally withdraws from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty. A country's exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". That country must either withdraw or submit a notice of denunciation to trigger a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source will be official information from the relevant government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event Stats

Event ID

18571

Start Date

Feb 13, 2025, 11:08 PM

End Date

Dec 31, 2025, 12:00 PM

Total Markets

2

Total Volume

319.76K

Liquidity

7.08K

Last Updated

Mar 16, 2026, 1:16 AM