PolymarketActive

Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by January 31?

Name: Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by January 31?
Start: 2026-01-07T22:24:52.660251Z
End: 2026-01-31T00:00:00Z

Ticker: atch-will-israel-launch-a-major-ground-offensive-in-lebanon-by-january-31
Liquidity: $6,322
24h Volume: $3,417
End Date: Jan 31, 2026, 12:00 AM

Market Overview

Markets are sorted by active status and volume. Probability history is fetched from Polymarket CLOB for the top market token IDs, similar to Bitcoin.com Markets.

Markets

Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by January 31?

Active

Yes

3.45%

96.55%

Market ID: 1131693
Volume: $71,996
Liquidity: $6,322
End Date: Jan 31, 2026, 12:00 AM

Event Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Lebanon by January 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Lebanese territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Event Stats

Event ID: 149934
Start Date: Jan 7, 2026, 10:24 PM
End Date: Jan 31, 2026, 12:00 AM
Total Markets: 1
Total Volume: 72K
Liquidity: 6.32K
Last Updated: Feb 1, 2026, 8:01 AM