Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?

Market Overview

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Event Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Lebanese territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Event Stats

Event ID

79223

Start Date

Nov 13, 2025, 11:20 PM

End Date

Mar 31, 2026, 12:00 AM

Total Markets

1

Total Volume

62.56K

Liquidity

8.41K

Last Updated

Mar 15, 2026, 11:46 PM