Will OPEC hike production by next meeting?

Market Overview

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Event Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OPEC or OPEC+ officially announces a new group-level crude oil production hike by time the February 2026 OPEC+ meeting release is published, including through that release. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The next OPEC+ meeting where production levels are to be set is scheduled to take place on February 1, 2026 (https://www.opec.org/pr-detail/1574587-4-january-2026.html). If that February 1, 2026 meeting passes, the release is published, and no qualifying production hike is announced, this market will resolve to "No". If no release is published by the time of the next OPEC+ meeting, and no qualifying production hike is otherwise announced, this market will resolve to "No". A "new group-level crude oil production hike" means an increase in crude oil production that is clearly presented as a new, collective action by OPEC or OPEC+ as a whole, not just an extension, reaffirmation, technical adjustment, or voluntary action by individual members or subgroups. Conditional hikes only count if the group explicitly agrees to increase production and specifies the conditions and volume in the February 2026 announcement. The primary resolution source will be official OPEC or OPEC+ communications, however a clear consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event Stats

Event ID

168496

Start Date

Jan 20, 2026, 8:27 PM

End Date

Feb 1, 2026, 12:00 AM

Total Markets

1

Total Volume

81.82

Liquidity

964.33

Last Updated

Feb 2, 2026, 11:31 AM