Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by...?

Market Overview

Markets are sorted by active status and volume. Probability history is fetched from Polymarket CLOB for the top market token IDs, similar to Bitcoin.com Markets.

Event Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Pokrovsk by September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Pokrovsk will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. If the territory of municipality is shade light grey, and is distinguished from bordering municipalities such as "Rih" with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, however the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Once Russia captures the Pokrovsk, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Pokrovsk Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Pokrovosk+Location.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/ixAs4fF8n8ccVeL17 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.

Event Stats

Event ID

38900

Start Date

Aug 21, 2025, 9:31 PM

End Date

Feb 28, 2026, 12:00 AM

Total Markets

9

Total Volume

3.69M

Liquidity

13.61K

Last Updated

Feb 27, 2026, 6:46 PM