Will UAE strike Yemen by January 31?

Market Overview

Markets are sorted by active status and volume. Probability history is fetched from Polymarket CLOB for the top market token IDs, similar to Bitcoin.com Markets.

Event Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United Arab Emirates (UAE) initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Yemeni soil by the listed date, Arabia Standard Time (AST, UTC+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by UAE military forces that impact Yemeni ground territory. A strike on any area within Yemen's terrestrial territory counts, including buffer zones. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Yemen's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by UAE ground operatives will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.

Event Stats

Event ID

135172

Start Date

Dec 31, 2025, 4:41 PM

End Date

Jan 31, 2026, 12:00 AM

Total Markets

1

Total Volume

15.16K

Liquidity

4.7K

Last Updated

Feb 3, 2026, 7:01 AM