Prediction market
Next Vice Chair of China’s Central Military Commission (CMC)?
Zhang Shengmin 100.00% • Liu Zhenli 0.00% • Li Qiaoming 0.00%
Market brief
How this market is shaping up
This board prices each candidate's path to the nomination. Use the rankings to see who currently leads the field, then use the chart below to judge whether that lead is strengthening or getting challenged.
Live probability chart
Hover to inspect price action over time.
Source: Direct from Polymarket price history
Candidate odds
Current pricing for the main field, ranked by win probability.
Rules
Resolution criteria from the source market.
This market resolves to the next individual officially announced as a Vice Chair (“中央军委副主席”) of the Communist Party of China’s Central Military Commission (CMC) after market creation. If multiple individuals are announced on the same day, the market will resolve in favor of the individual who was announced first by an official source. If multiple individuals are officially announced simultaneously as CMC Vice Chairs in the same official document/broadcast, the market will resolve in accordance with the listed order indicated by the official announcement. If no order is indicated the market will resolve according to the alphabetical order of the individuals listed last name. If no Vice Chair (“中央军委副主席”) of the Communist Party of China’s Central Military Commission (CMC) is announced by June 30, 2026, this market will resolve to “None by June 30”. The primary resolution sources will be official Chinese state announcements (such as Xinhua bulletins, People’s Daily readouts, etc.) However a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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