Polymarket Events

This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 (January 1 - March 31). The percentage change in the S&P 500 In…

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by March 31, 2026, 11:59…

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of South Korea Yoon Suk Yeol is released from custody by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". I…

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the…

A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater. This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur an…

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for 'Republican Party' in the "Which party will win the House in 2026?" market (https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will…

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Lead…

On December 10, 2025, Ukraine hit and disabled "Dashan," a tanker involved in trading Russian oil, as it sailed through Ukraine's exclusive economic zone in the Black Sea to the R…

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Polymarket has at least the specified daily mindshare, as shown on the Kaito Information Markets Arena page (https://yaps.kaito.ai/infomarkets…

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the first U.S. "Gold Card" visa, is officially issued by March 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Any new …

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is arrested or detained by law enforcement by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market wi…

Robinhood, through a joint venture with Susquehanna International Group, recently acquired a majority stake in MIAXdx, a Commodity Futures Trading Commission-licensed Designated C…

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the number of views any YouTube video posted by MrBeast gets in the first day after being posted is greater than or equal to 50 million by Mar…

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Naim Qassem ceases to be Hezbollah’s secretary-general for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will …

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for 'Republican Party' in the "Which party will win the Senate in 2026?" market (https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-wil…

This market will resolve to “Yes” if both Denmark and the United States sign a deal, treaty, or similar international agreement of any kind relating to Greenland by March 31, 2026…

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "major grou…

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. O…

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of Governor Tim Walz by M…

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already apart of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham A…

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump meets with Delcy Rodríguez by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An exchange of words, han…

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and …

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leade…

This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of cred…

On March 31, 2025, Marine Le Pen was sentenced to a five-year ban from public office for embezzlement of public funds, potentially blocking her from the 2027 presidential race. Th…

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text…

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Slovenia on March 22, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in…

This market will resolve to the company that owns the model with the top LiveBench “coding average” score on the LiveBench AI model leaderboard (https://livebench.ai/#/) on March …

If Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visits New York City by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". F…

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nikita Bier ceases to be Head of Product of X for any length of time between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this m…

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A nuclear test is defined as the intentio…

This market will resolve to the third-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus o…

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the MrBeast YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast) hits the specified number of subscribers by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherw…

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the price of the S&P 500 Index (SPX) increases by at least the listed percentage on any single trading day between January 14 and March 31, 20…

This market will resolve to “Yes” if both the following occur: 1. Zohran Mamdani wins the 2025 NYC Mayoral election. 2. The New York City Metropolitan Transportation Authority imp…

This is a market on the outcome of the Artemis II mission.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ilhan Omar announces she has resigned, will resign, or will not run for re-election for United States Representative from Minnesota by March 3…

This market will resolve to "Yes" if police officers, security forces, or military personnel belonging to neither Israel nor a Palestinian entity begin an officially acknowledged …

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A nuclear test is defined as the intentio…

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump, his administration (including any executive branch department, agency, or office), or the United States federal government files…

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Venezuela at any point between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this mar…

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation into law or performs any executive action which creates or orders the creation of a federal cap on …

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Rami leaves KPop group Babymonster by March 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will immediately re…

Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Somaliland in late March 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of…

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the State of Florida enacts a law that modifies the boundaries of federal Congressional Districts in Florida by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. O…

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any two or more of the former members of FaZe Clan known as Adapt, Lacy, Silky, Stable Ronaldo, and/or JasonTheWeen form a new professional or…

On Friday, December 26th, Israel became the first country to recognize Somaliland as a sovereign state. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-eas…

Iceland has become the fifth country to announce a boycott of the 2026 Eurovision Song Contest over Israel’s participation. You can read more about this development here: https://…

This market will resolve to "Yes" if former New York City mayor Eric Adams is arrested or detained by law enforcement by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will r…

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Slovenia on March 22, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially elected by the National Assembly …